On Monday September 10, 2012, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate 360 Live radio show on The Big Talker 1580 WHFS AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.

Listen to the show.

Part 1 (14:26)

Louis and Ryan discuss what the Fed might do this week. Louis notes the unemployment rate and the labor participation rate. Louis predicts that the Fed will not act in September, but notes that QE is inevitable because it supports the spending and debt levels of the government.

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On Monday July 23, 2012, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate 360 Live radio show on The Big Talker 1580 WHFS AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.

Listen to the show.

Part 1 (14:42)

Ryan discusses the Spanish debt crisis. Ryan and Louis discuss the low interest rates of German and US bonds. Louis notes that the low rates highlight investors’ demand for “safety” even though yields are below the stated official inflation rate. Louis notes that because rates are artificially low, it is good for those who want to take out long term low interest mortgages.

Louis and Ryan note that the US interest rates are being kept low because the US government can not afford to pay its debt if interest rates were higher. Louis notes that the US treasuries becomes by default the safe haven because the US is the largest sovereign and also because gold, silver and real estate (arguably safer investments) are more thinly traded and less widely held.

Louis notes that even municipal bonds are being preferred by investors seeking safety even though municipalities have limited means of raising revenues and are bankruptcy risks.Louis notes that Spain’s 7%+ interest rates are an example of what a sovereign must pay if its investors are concerned about its inability to pay principal and interest back.

Louis notes that the US rates are not near 7% because the US can print the difference. Louis notes however by doing so becomes in effect a default as the investors received debased currency in return. Louis notes that low interest rate punish savers who would help their economy by savings and that low interest rates encourage consumption which does not help the economy because people consuming are doing so with borrowed money.

Louis notes that the low interest rate environment helps the banks, the government and the rich. Louis notes that perhaps deflation is preferable for those on fixed incomes. Louis notes when prices go higher the only way to afford higher prices is to take out a loan.
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On Monday March 12, 2012, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate 360 Live radio show on The Big Talker 1580 WHFS AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.

Listen to the show.

Part 1 (14:46)

Ryan discusses the upcoming Fed meeting and the potential for more quantitative easing to keep interest rates low. Ryan notes that James Grant refers to the Fed actions as market manipulation. Louis notes that when interest rates are low for items that require borrowing, prices rise (housing, college tuition). Louis agrees that Fed and government policies contribute to this.

Louis notes that when there are low interest rates and an increase in the money supply and credit, not only do prices of goods that require borrowing rise, but prices of commodities like oil and gold and silver also rise. Low interest rates also create a speculative environment.

Ryan and Louis notes that the rise in the cost of oil also impacts the cost of finished goods. Louis notes that if there is QE3, the price of oil would rise which would not be good for the President’s reelection chances. Ryan notes that interest rates will need to rise if the dollar continues to be devalued. Louis notes we have been side tracked by the Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street and that has taken public’s attention away from the US debt crisis.

Ryan notes that only Ron Paul is talking about the unsustainability of the US debt. Louis notes that Ron Paul and his message has been marginalized by the main stream media. Louis notes that a target inflation rate is not a good idea as it is a pre-calculated method of taking the value of people’s money away. Louis also notes that low interest rates force savers into the riskier equities market as they can’t get a positive rate of return in CDs. Continue reading this post

On Monday February 27, 2012, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate 360 Live radio show on The Big Talker 1580 WHFS AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.

Listen to the show.

Part 1 (14:27)

Louis and Ryan discuss the $5 billion suit against the banks for wrongfully foreclosing on homeowners. Louis notes a moral hazzard is created when companies and individuals are bailed out. Louis notes that when you keep interest rates artificially low borrowers have no incentive to pay off debt earlier and no incentive to save. Low interest rates urge consumption and borrowing. Louis notes that rising gas prices have little to do with speculators or problems in the Middle East but rather the decline in the value of the dollar.

Louis notes that in 1964 a gallon of gas cost $.30. In 1964 a US quarter was 90% silver. Today a 1964 quarter is worth $6.43 (MORE than the price of a gallon of gas-at today’s price of about $4.25 a gallon) a 1964 US dime is worth $2.50, so the  price of gas has gone up less vs the dollar than silver. Ryan notes that Warren Buffet is a stock expert but not necessarily an expert in real estate.

Louis notes that its probable that the local Realtor knows far more about real estate than Warren Buffet. Louis notes that many people believe that Warren Buffet’s views on taxes are somehow more valid because he has made a lot of money in stocks. Louis notes that sadly, the people equate wealth with intelligence.

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With many markets across the nation weathering a storm of distressed properties, coupled with the potential of a sizeable shadow inventory lurking ahead, many potential buyers are still hesitant to purchase. After all, there are many signs that all the talk about a possible double dip is becoming less of a theory and more of a stark reality.

Most assume that Maui, as a destination location, would be the first to take downward plunges and the last to recover.  However, recent statistics and analysis are proving otherwise.

Year to date sales for 2010 (comparing Jan-Aug 2009 to Jan-Aug 2010), statistics show that residential unit sales have risen by 35%, average sold price by 6%, and total dollar volume sold by a whooping 43%.  Condo sales (with condos being a popular form of ownership in Maui, particularly for those looking to invest in vacation rentals) have increased by 48%, average sold price declined by 9%, but the overall total condo dollar volume sold increased by 36%.

Although I am a skeptic by nature, but these numbers are too strong to ignore.

Furthermore, in July noted economist Paul Brewbaker, former Chief Economist at Bank of Hawaii and currently of TZ Economics, went in great length to explain how lagging indicators (i.e. high unemployment rates) still give the perception of a recession when in reality we have already gone through the first stages of a long-term recovery. As per his statements, first come increased sales volume (which we are experiencing) and then comes increase in sales prices.

Let’s see how the rest of the year shakes out.

So how can sellers thrive while the local real estate market stabilizes itself? Continue reading this post

The term “short sale” was hardly even heard of 4 years ago.  The name alone is so ironic in that it usually takes 3 months to a year to close.

Most Realtors® won’t even show them as now a days you are lucky if they close at all. They are without a doubt the most frustrating of all sales. Still I guess we will be forced to live with them until someone let’s the lawmakers know that enough is enough.  We need regulations and rules.  Realtors are either getting rich or running for the poor house.

Fannie Mae recently passed a regulation that prohibits banks from negotiating the buyers commission or reducing them. A small but great victory for buyer’s agents who are at the mercy of the listing agent.  Most of the time they offer 2.5% – 3% and state on the MLS that if commissions are reduced they are split 50/50.

Well I guess we have to take the word of the listing agent and their escrow officers on this.

I recently had a listing agent tell me that they reduced the total commission to 3% and I was to settle for 1.5%. She then accidentally forwarded me an email from the bank negotiator, who allowed a 7% total commission.  Talk about dishonesty and greed.  Unfortunately it is very prevalent in this market.  I did manage to get my 3% but with a lot of Broker to Broker combat.

How I long for the old days. Continue reading this post