On Monday June 6, 2011, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate Radio show on The Big Talker 1580 AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.
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Part 1 (24:03)
Ryan and Louis discuss the prior week’s economic events. Mortgage rates hit record lows last week. Louis and Ryan discuss the value of taking out a mortgage now to protect against future interest rate hikes and inflation. Ryan and Louis discuss 4.2% decline in home prices in the first quarter as indicated by the Case Schiller index. Ryan notes that the Case Schiller index leaves out condo, coops and new construction and therefore may give a false reading on the direction of home prices. Louis notes that the Case Schiller index does not give an accurate snap shot of current market conditions as it dates back to the prior quarter. Louis references the second quarter 2011 HomeGain national home values survey and provides the preliminary results with 57% of real estate professionals thinking that home values would decline in the coming six months and 42% of homeowners expect home to decline in the coming six months. Louis mentions that he believes home prices will remain down until the inventory of short sales and foreclosures are cleared from the market. Ryan postulates that home prices are down due to incessant media focus on shadow inventory and distressed sales that cast a negative light on the housing market. Louis agrees that consumer sentiment does play a role in home prices and that the media can influence consumer sentiment. Louis notes that the underlying fundamentals are what really drives the market, not the media, claiming the market speaks louder than the media. Ryan notes that four out of five of the richest counties in the United States are in the Washington D.C. area. Louis notes that there is a confluence of positive facts that keep the housing market strong in the D.C. metro area- government spending, government contractors, government workers with good job security. Ryan noted that the ADP survey showed only 38,000 private sector jobs were created vs. expectations of 170,000. Ryan and Louis discuss 15 year mortgages and discusses the factors that go into setting mortgage rates based on the borrower’s profile and the type of home being purchased. Ryan and Louis note the job report that showed only 54,000 new jobs and that the unemployment rate rose from 9.0 to 9.1 % and that there were 35,000 government jobs lost, mostly in local in state governments. Louis notes that the states will have to continue to cut employees and that the Federal government will eventually have to do the same. Ryan notes a recent interview with Greenspan where he notes all that is wrong with the current economy and where it is headed. Louis remarks that the guy who lit the fire is complaining about the blaze and how Greenspan refuses to take any blame for current economic conditions. Louis predicts that at the upcoming Fed meeting there will be no change in monetary policy and that their policy will be designed to keep interest rates low.
On Monday May 23, 2011, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate Radio show on The Big Talker 1580 AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.
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Part 1 (24:02)
Ryan and Louis discuss the Greek and Belgium debt downgrades and note how it helped the price of the dollar this week as well as helped keep US interest rates down;Louis notes that when the EURO has difficulties investors flock towards the dollar which he equates as running from the blast towards the tornado and notes that the US states’ fiscal issues are the equivalent of EU member state fiscal issues;Ryan notes that the Fed stated in their minutes of their most recent meeting that they will keep rates low for an extended period. Louis notes that QE2 cost $600 billion and created 700,000 jobs-at a cost of $860,000 per job and that during the period of QE2 home prices dropped 8%. Louis highlights that the FED is in a bind given that higher interest rates would harm the housing and employment rates; Ryan discusses the debt ceiling issues and mentions that the US spends $4 billion more a day than it brings in; Ryan notes that the top 1% of income earners (those making over $530K a year) pay taxes at a rate of 18% and argues that taxes need to be spread out evenly over all tax payers to broaden the tax base;Louis counters that about half of people don’t pay any taxes at all and says that the issues is not the the government doesn’t tax its citizens enough but that its promises too much and pays too much for what it delivers;Louis notes that if you increase taxes on the top earners, the next step would be to increase taxes on the next highest earners;Ryan notes that one of the issues in the current economy is the lack of capital formation; Louis notes that capital formation is low because interest rates are low and discourages savings and in that environment people though money somewhat indiscriminately at the stock market; Ryan and Louis note the rise in the price of newly minted IPO Linkedin;Ryan notes the low number of new homes being built; Louis remarks that many home builders are not building homes so as not to put their new homes on the market in competition with the excess inventory on the market; Louis also notes that many home builders have land out side the center of cities which makes homes in these areas less attractive given the cost of gas and commuting;Ryan and Louis discuss the bind that the economy is in whether to raise interest rates now or later; Ryan and Louis discuss buy vs. rent issues
On Monday May 16, 2011, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate Radio show on The Big Talker 1580 AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.
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Part 1 (24:12)
Ryan and Louis talk about the economic events of the week. Ryan mentions the Mississippi flooding. Ryan and Louis discuss the debt ceiling issues and that Timothy Geithner, U.S. Treasury Secretary has a few loopholes to avoid the government defaulting. Louis also notes that the US will have to raise interest rates to attract investment. Louis notes that raising the debt ceiling is a matter of course for Congress rather than cutting spending to avoid hitting the debt ceiling. Louis notes that it is considered an “extreme” position to want government to not spend more than it takes in. Ryan notes that China owns $1.14 trillion in US debt and is trying to diversify its assets away from the U.S. Louis notes the dilemma that China is in if they stop purchasing US Debt as the US may not be able to meet paying the interest payments to China without the proceeds from the sale from further US treasuries. Louis notes the fallacy that spending more money when you owe money can solves a debt issue. Louis mentions that the US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Louis notes the practical impact of a government shut down;Ryan and Louis discuss the number of home owners that are underwater on their mortgages;Ryan discusses mortgage and refinance options for such home owners;Ryan notes that business confidence is at a seven month low; Louis mentions that employers get more productivity out of existing employees rather than higher additional employees; Ryan notes the top three areas of job growth over the last year: health care, government and education; Louis notes that state governments, however, are cutting employees to try and close their budget deficits; Federal government job and government contract job growth remains robust;Louis notes that states are limited in their ability to raise revenue by printing money or raising taxes;Ryan reviews current mortgage interest rates;Ryan notes that for the week ended May 7 unemployment benefit decreased and that oil prices decreased, CPI rose 3.25% the most since 2008 but without food and energy prices included prices rose just .2%. Louis and Ryan note that food and energy prices are the largest components of peoples’ budget and discuss whether the rise in food and energy prices are “transitory”;Louis notes that the Federal Government gives no consideration for the various cost of living differences across regions of the United States, noting that a couple earning $250K in the DC metro area is not rich while a similarly situated couple in Alabama might be so considered; Louis and Ryan discuss the direction of oil prices this summer;Louis notes that governments make more in taxes when gas prices rise.
On Monday May 9, 2011, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate Radio show on The Big Talker 1580 AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.
Listen to the show.
Part 1 (24:03)
Ryan mentions that Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg may have purchased a home in California; Ryan reviews the economic events of the prior week; Ryan notes that interest rate are still heading down;Ryan notes that the DC real estate market is competitive on the buy and rent sides and that would be renters in the DC area are turning into would be buyers; Louis notes that the DC housing dynamic is different from the rest of the country where housing prices are down and there is plenty of inventory;Louis notes that if it is cheaper to buy than rent that it makes sense to get a long term low interest rate loan; Louis talks about the benefits of visiting HomeGain.com; Louis discusses the HomeGain FSBO vs. Realtor survey and the advantages of hiring a REALTOR; Louis and Ryan discuss the HomeGain home improvement survey and recount the types of home improvements that provide the best return on investment;Ryan and Louis talk about pricing strategies for selling a home;Louis and Ryan discuss the differences between pricing a short sale and pricing a non short sale home; Louis notes pricing a home too high may keep the home on the market a long time and that the more days a home is on the market makes a home look like damaged good;Ryan describes short sales as foreclosure avoidance and discusses the impact of each on FICO scores; Ryan talks about the options that people with underwater mortgages have; Louis mentions that 72% of home buyers and sellers pick the first real estate agent they meet and points out the value in comparing agents first using HomeGain’s Find a REALTOR program; Louis can Ryan discuss the level of shadow inventory the impact on sellers as more inventory gets released;
On Monday April 25, 2011, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate Radio show on The Big Talker 1580 AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.
Listen to highlights of the show!
Part 1 (24:46)
Ryan and Louis discuss the upcoming Fed meeting and press conference;Louis thinks the new transparency will provide useful soundbites for fed detractors in the future; who will buy US treasuries when QE2 ends? will there be a failed auction? what will happen to interest rates? Louis discusses runaway monetary and fiscal policies; is the rise in oil prices caused by speculation? what about the rise in other commodities, are those increases caused by speculation? isn’t the real speculation in the US dollar? the demand for silver as a hedge against inflation; the impact of the Chinese and Indians on the price of silver; the value of a low interest loan used to purchase a home; why renting in an inflationary environment may be risky;are government jobs in D.C. a sure bet? Ryan and Louis discuss the levels of “productivity” of employees in the Department of Energy and Department of Education; the lack of a change in debate regarding the existence of the Federal Reserve and what the Federal government should or should not do; Ryan and Louis disagree on the best profile for a potential US President; discuss career politicians and their reliance on academia for economic advice- and get Keynesian counterfeiting advice; Rand Paul; how US Presidents are generally out of touch on consumer item prices; Donald Trump; Ryan reviews the week’s economic data; the fallacy of why a weak dollar is good for the U.S.; why the Fed is in a bind; why the Fed will continue to kick the can down the road; Louis provides the HomeGain 1st quarter 2011 Virginia home values survey results and the HomeGain1st quarter 2011 national home values survey results.
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