On Monday January 9, 2012, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate 360 radio show on The Big Talker 1580 AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.
Listen to the show.
Part 1 (14:56)
Ryan and Louis offer their predictions for 2012 on the general economy, real estate market, interest rates, the presidential election, the price of gold oil and silver and foreclosures. Louis notes that the beginning of the year will be a continuation of low interest rates, working off inventory and a tepid market but predicts a financial shock at some point in 2012 perhaps based on a European debt crisis or something in the US.
Louis notes that there is no way to solve the housing crisis or the general sovereign debt crisis other than to allow the debt to be liquidated, but notes that the central banks are not willing to allow it.
Ryan notes of a new tax on mortgages that helps Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which Louis characterizes as a back door bailout of these entities.
Louis notes that many home buyers are holding off on purchasing a home because they think interest rates might go lower or that they will stay low for a long time or that home prices will fall further. Louis notes that more likely rents will rise and that it makes sense to get a long term low interest rate to protect against the rise in the real cost of shelter.
Louis notes that if interest rate rose it would be a disaster for the US government as it would make it even more difficult for the US to pay off the interest. Louis notes that the Fed’s operation twist is intended to keep long term interest rates down. Louis notes that institutional investors purchase US government bonds for their perceived safety. Louis notes that the US is actually printing LESS physical currency as the cost of paper and its components (cotton and ink) are getting more expensive.