No recommendation until tomorrow. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee today. At 2:15PM (EDT), 11:15 (PDT), they will release their interest rate decision and statement. The fixed income securities market believe there is a 43% chance that the Fed will RAISE rates to stifle inflation in August and that there is a 61% chance that the hike will come in November.
The eyes will be on the Fed’s commentary, though:
”We expect the Fed to keep the funds rate at 2% today but to shift to a more hawkish statement by placing more emphasis on inflation over growth risks,” strategists at Credit Suisse wrote in a research report. “The Fed will likely use this meeting as an opportunity to set the stage for a potential rate rise in August.”
If the Fed signals that rates could rise as early as August, expect mortgage rates to jump .25% higher, from today’s 6.375% 30 year fixed rate, over the next few weeks. If the Fed signals rate hikes are “possible” as a way to fight inflation, expect rates to stay Continue reading this post