Want to Predict the Market? Keep Your Ear to the Ground

Posted by: Eric Bramlett on August 15th, 2009

People often ask me the “crystal ball” question, “What do you think the market is going to do?”  I check off the many indicators I watch, including unemployment, demand, and crystal-ball-market-predict-real-estateinventory.

I then follow up with one of the most important indicators, “What do you think the market is going to do?”

In 2008, Austin’s real estate market was relatively healthy but flat.  We saw slight appreciation in the median price.  However, when speaking with clients & friends not in the business, it was their impression that the sky had and was falling.

Luckily, in Austin, the sky didn’t fall, but it did drop.  Home prices have depreciated slightly in 2009.  There are many factors that combine to cause this, but the public’s general impression of the market is a big one.

Since all real estate is local, it seems a bit counterproductive to watch national real estate trends closely.  Moreover, local economies vary greatly from market to market.

However, watching national news & real estate trends does serve a purpose in that it helps you gauge your local buyers’ & sellers’ perception of the market.  Gallup does a great job of measuring perception on a national level. 

Economic outlook perception is one response that I feel is poignant in predicting both the general economic state, and real estate market.  Industry polls & reports, such as those that HomeGain provide are another great resource.

However, one of the best indicators is to simply keep your ear to the ground, and ask others, “What do you think the market is going to do?”



3 Comments on “Want to Predict the Market? Keep Your Ear to the Ground”

Cathy Chaudemanche

Yes, I agree all real estate markets are local and listening or following national statistics ar not going to help local home buyers/sellers. And this is exactly where you and me as real estate professional come to play and can add a great value in providing our local clients with local, current and reliable statistics so they can make sound business decisions. This is an example of what we provide on monthly basis: http://www.yourhousefast.com/housing-analysis.asp
Now, where we really come into play is by explaining our clients what those numbers really mean to them…
Cathy Chaudemanche

Robert Worthington

Eric, I’ve finally been able to narrow down the crystal ball question with 2 words. ‘It Depends’ is what I always tell family & friends.

Real Estate Investment Software

The crystal ball method is problematic at best. Better to make a decision based on thorough research and information than on opinion and conjecture.

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