Earlier today, HomeGain, one of the first companies to provide free instant home valuations online, released the national and regional results of our fourth quarter home prices survey of nearly 1000 HomeGain current and former members. The survey asked their opinions on real estate values and what they thought of President Obama’s performance as President.
On the HomeGain blog we published the full survey results, including Realtor commentary and charts. Earlier today we also published the results of the fourth quarter California home prices survey.
The national results of the first quarter surey of Realtors on home values painted a very pessimistic picture. The 1st quarter Texas survey data, however, revealed far less pessimism. In the second quarter the national results indicated some improvement in the housing market, while Realtors in Texas believed their markets to be relatively stable.
Texas home owners reduced their valuation expectations in the third quarter survey. Seventy-three percent of Texas homeowners in the third quarter believed their homes were worth either what their Realtors recommended or within 1-9% higher or lower vs. 45% who believed the same in the second quarter. (see question 2). In the fourth quarter, however, Texans are starting to think their homes are worth more than their Realtors are telling them with 36% percent thinking their homes are worth 10-20% more than the Realtor recommended listing prices vs. 23% who thought so in the third quarter. (see question 2)
Sixty-nine percent of home buyers in Texas now believe that home prices are either fairly priced or over valued by less than 10%by less than ten percent, the same percentage as in the third quarter. (see question 3)
Thirty-one percent of Texas Realtors now believe that home values in their state will increase over the next six months vs. 43% who so believed in the third quarter. Just 13% of Texas Realtors expect home prices to decline in the next six months vs. 17% in the third quarter, with 56% believing that home prices will remain the same. (see question 6)
President Obama’s approval rating among Texas Realtors improved to 50% (vs. 42% nationally) with 33% of Texas Realtors “strongly disapproving” and 17% “somewhat disapproving” of the President’s performance. (see question 10)
Set forth below is the first, second, third and fourth quarter Texas home prices data with the national data in parenthesis: (click on each question to see complete results):
- Have home prices increased, decreased or stayed the same in the last year?
- On average, what do homeowners believe that their home is worth?
- How do buyers feel that homes for sale are priced?
- What is the average difference in price between what sellers believe their home to be worth and the amount at which the home gets listed?
- What is the average difference in price between what a home is listed at and what a home sells for?
- In the next six months, will the values of homes in your market increase, decrease or stay the same?
- What percentage of homes for sale are foreclosures in your area?
- What is the average home price in your area?
- What percentage of your clients are first-time buyers?
- How do you as a Realtor think Barack Obama is performing in his role as President?
Question 1:
Q4TX/Q3TX/Q2TX/Q1TX compared to (Q4NAT/Q3NAT/Q2NAT/Q1NAT)
Decreased – 58%/55%/80%/56% (77%/81%/84%/90%)
Stayed the same – 35%/26%/12%/41% (15%/13%/12%/8%)
Increased – 7%/18%/8%/3% (7%/6%/3%/2%)
Question 2. On average, what do your homeowner clients believe that their home is worth?
Q4TX/Q3TX/Q2TX/Q1TX compared to (Q4NAT/Q3NAT/Q2NAT/Q1NAT)
10% – 20% higher: 36%/23%/35%/51% (40%/38%/35%/45%)
1% – 9% higher: 36%/48%/27%/0% (28%/25%/24%/*)
At listing price you recommend- 15%/14%/12%/26% (9%/11%/10%/14%)
1% – 9% less: 6%/11%/6%/0% (7%/7%/9%/*)
10% – 20% less: 3%/2%/8%/13% (5%/5%/8%/10%)
21% – 30% higher: 2%/0%/14%/3% (6%/8%/8%/14%)
More than 30% higher: 2%/3%/0%/0% (2%/3%/2%/4%)
21% – 30% less: 0%/0%/3%/0% (2%/2%/3%/*)
More than 30% less: 0%/0%/2%/0% (1%/1%/2%/1%)
Question 3. How do your homebuyer clients feel that homes are priced?
Q4TX/Q3TX/Q2TX/Q1TX compared to (Q4NAT/Q3NAT/Q2NAT/Q1NAT)
Overpriced by less than 10% – 44%/46%/27%/36% (32%/30%/29%/21%)
Fairly Priced: 25%/23%/23%/23% (21%/20%/19%/18%)
Overpriced by 10% – 20%: 16%/12%/32%/45% (28%/30%/30%/32%)
Underpriced by less than 10%: 9%/9%/6%/6% (5%/5%/5%/5%)
Overpriced by 21%+: 4%/2%/3%/3% (3%/4%/4%/10%)
Underpriced by 10-20% – 2%/8%/6%/15% (7%/8%/8%/14%)
Underpriced by 21-30% – 0%/0%/3%/0% (3%/2%/1%/2%)
Question 4. What is the average difference in price between what sellers believe their home to be worth and the amount at which you eventually list the house?
Q4TX/Q3TX/Q2TX compared to (Q4NAT/Q3NAT/Q2NAT)
Less than 5-10% – 51%/60%/47% (48%/43%/43%)
Less than 11-20% – 20%/14%/21% (23%/24%/23%)
Little or no difference in price – 14%/20%/14% (9%/12%/8%)
Greater than 5-10% – 7%/3%/9% (8%/9%/10%)
Greater than 11-20% – 4%/2%/6% (5%/5%/7%)
Greater than 21% – 2%/0%/2% (3%/3%/3%)
Less than 21-30% – 2%/2%/2% (4%/4%/5%)
Question 5. What is the average difference in price between what the home is listed at and what the home sells for?
Q4TX/Q3TX/Q2TX compared to (Q4NAT/Q3NAT/Q2NAT)
Greater than 11-20% – 5%/0%/3% (3%/4%/4%)
Greater than 21% – 0%/2%/3% (2%/2%/2%)
Greater than 5-10% – 4%/2%/2% (6%/5%/5%)
Less than 11-20% – 20%/12%/26% (23%/24%/27%)
Less than 21-30% – 4%/2%/2% (3%/3%/4%)
Less than 5-10% – 54%/71%/58% (56%/54%/53%)
Little or no difference – 13%/12%/8% (7%/8%/5%)
Question 6:
Q4TX/Q3TX/Q2TX/Q1TX compared to (Q4NAT/Q3NAT/Q2NAT/Q1NAT)
Decrease: 13%/17%/24%/25% (28%/31%/29%/53%)
Increase: 31%/43%/24%/25% (24%/23%/22%/11%)
Stay the same: 56%/52%/36% / 50% (48%/46%/49%/36%)
Question 7. What percent of homes for sale in your area are foreclosures?
Q4TX/Q3TX/Q2TX/Q1TX compared to (Q4NAT/Q3NAT/Q2NAT/Q1NAT)
10% – 20%: 29%/34%/27%/28% (29%/27%/15%/26%)
21% – 30%: 13%/11%/12%/13% (19%/17%/12%/16%)
31% – 50%: 2%/2%/15%/10% (9%/13%/7%/15%)
51% – 75%: 0%/0%/11%/3% (4%/5%/3%/5%)
75%+: 0%/8%/0%/0% (2%/2%/3%/2%)
Less than 10%: 56%/54%/35%/46% (37%/36%/26%/37%)
Question 8. What is the average home price in your area?
Q4TX/Q3TX/Q2TX/Q1TX compared to (Q4NAT/Q3NAT/Q2NAT/Q1NAT)
Less than $150k: 22%/22%/23%/5% (18%/18%/16%/11%)
$151k – $300k: 67%/68%/56%/82% (55%/52%/56%/59%)
$301k – $500k: 11%/8%/15%/8% (18%/21%/20%/21%)
$501k – $800k: 0%/3%/5%/5% (6%/7%/5%/6%)
$801k+: 0%/0%/2%/0% (3%/2%/3%/2%)
Question 9:
Q4TX (Q4NAT)
1-10%: 18% (25%)
11-20%: 20% (14%)
21-30%: 13% (11%)
31-40%: 14% (9%)
41-50%: 4% (9%)
51%+: 15% (21%)
None: 16% (11%)
Question 10:
Q4TX/Q3TX/Q2TX compared to (Q4NAT/Q3NAT/Q2NAT)
Somewhat approve: 28%/17%/35% (26%/21%/31%)
Somewhat disapprove: 17%/12%/14% (18%/19%/19%)
Strongly approve: 22%/11%/23% (18%/20%/26%)
Strongly disapprove: 33%/60%/29% (38%/40%/24%)
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I am really impressed with how close to reality Texas consumers were about their home values. If I took the time to do a survey of property values for every single community in the Houston metro area i believe I would vind that the results would look very close to the 58% declined, 35% stayed the same, and 7% increased in value. The only difference is we would likely see that a few more neighborhoods increased than decreased in comparison to the consumer survey numbers.
December 31st, 2009 at 5:35 pm
I couldn’t agree more. This is definitely the case in our market as well.
January 27th, 2010 at 2:32 pm