Real Estate Agents Cautious on Direction of Home Prices
HomeGain®, one of the first websites to provide free instant home values, today announced the results of its nationwide home prices survey of over 1,400 current and former HomeGain members.
The results of the HomeGain First Quarter 2010 Home Prices Survey indicates that the vast majority of real estate professionals nationwide believe that home prices will decrease or stay the same over the next six months.
General Manager at HomeGain, Louis Cammarosano, stated in the March 23rd press release: “In the first quarter survey many real estate professionals expressed concern over five factors that could potentially impact home prices adversely: rising interest rates, expiration of the home buyer tax credit, persistent unemployment, continued foreclosures and the release of shadow inventory held by the banks.”
Texas real estate professionals appear to be the most optimistic about the direction of home prices in their state, while those in Minnesota appear to be the least optimistic.
Top 10 States Where Real Estate Agents and Brokers Think Home Prices Will Go Down In the Next Six Months:
- Minnesota (82%)
- Oregon (65%)
- Illinois (54%)
- Utah (50%)
- New York (44%)
- New Jersey (44%)
- Nevada (43%)
- Michigan (42%)
- Connecticut (42%)
- Washington (35%)
Top 10 States Where Real Estate Agents and Brokers Think Home Prices Will Go Up in the Next Six Months:
- Texas (41%)
- Massachusetts (38%)
- California (37%)
- Nevada (36%)
- Idaho (31%)
- Colorado (31%)
- Alabama (25%)
- Tennessee (25%)
- Arizona (23%)
- Indiana (22%)
We also asked real estate professionals of whether they approved Obama’s performance as President. Fifty-eight percent disapproved while 42% approved. Forty percent “strongly disapproved” of the President’s performance. A comparison with the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Approval Index during the same time period (March 3-10) shows the President’s disapproval rating between 53-56%.
The results of the survey also show a continuing disconnect between what home buyers and sellers think homes are worth. Sixty-three percent of potential home buyers think that homes are over priced with only 21% believing that homes are fairly priced.
Seventy-seven percent of home sellers believe their homes are worth more than their agents’ recommended selling price.
The survey was conducted from March 3-10.
View the HomeGain 1st Quarter 2009 Home Prices Survey. View all prior HomeGain national and state home prices surveys.
The first quarter 2010 regional results are available by clicking here.
Questions and National Results:
- Have home prices increased, decreased or stayed the same in the last year?
- On average, what do homeowners believe that their home is worth?
- How do buyers feel that homes for sale are priced?
- What is the average difference in price between what sellers believe their home to be worth and the amount at which the home gets listed?
- What is the average difference in price between what a home is listed at and what a home sells for?
- In the next six months, will the values of homes in your market increase, decrease or stay the same?
- What percentage of homes for sale are foreclosures in your area?
- What is the average home price in your area?
- What percentage of your clients are first-time buyers?
- How do you as a Realtor think Barack Obama is performing in his role as President?
Agent Commentary From Question 1 — Have home prices increased, decreased or stayed the same in the last year?
“National statistics can be confusing to clients. My market is doing better than the national average. Clients must remember that all real estate is local.” - Vicki Porter, Porter House Realty, Denver, CO
Overall, 77% of home sellers believe their homes are worth more than their agents’ recommended selling price.
Overall, 63% of surveyed agents and brokers indicated that their home buyer clients think homes for sale are overpriced.
Agent Commentary From Question 3 — How do buyers feel that homes for sale are priced?
“Interesting buyer’s market; Buyers are greedy even if the houses are listed way low! Challenging for the sellers; They need to make their house the best one out there. Fresh paint & staging really helps; Most buyers want to buy & do nothing but move in!” – Josee Boal, RE/MAX Traditions, Aurora, OH
“In order to sell your home in today’s market, the list price has to be right on the mark the first time. Everyone is looking for a deal.” – Debbie Jacobson, Prudential Rubloff Properties, New Buffalo, MI
Overall, almost half of agents nationwide indicated that there is an average difference of less than 5-10% in price between what sellers believe their home is worth and what it is listed at.
Agent Commentary From Question 4 — What is the average difference in price between what sellers believe their home to be worth and the amount at which you eventually list the home?
“Accurate pricing is more important than ever if you want to get your home sold. Make sure your agent really knows what is going on in your market”- Eileen R. Connors, The Real Estate Market Nashville, Brentwood, TN
“Buyers and sellers should look at sold comparables in the areas they are interested in, going back three months for information on current market trends. Economic flux should be factored into today’s values.” – Joan Wachter, Coldwell Banker, San Mateo, CA
“If the questions referred to my specific sellers, I make sure they are aggressively priced for today’s market or I won’t represent them.” - Gail Gladstone, Long Island Business Brokerage, Inc., Huntington, NY
“The most common phrases I hear from sellers is. ‘I don’t want to GIVE my house away!’ Or, ‘We need to get $XXX for our house.’ In response, I’ve said, ‘Then I guess you’re not moving.’” – Pam Frey-Primiani, Keller Williams, Cherry Hill, NJ
Overall, nationwide, agents indicate that 90% of homes sell for less than the price they are listed at.
Agent Commentary From Question 5 — What is the average difference in price between what the home is listed at and what the home sells for?
“There is a fine line between what buyers want to pay and what sellers want to accept. It is the art of erasing that line that makes a good Realtor.” – Valarie Kubacki, Century 21 Pace Estates, Valparaiso, IN
Overall, the majority of agents and brokers think home prices will stay the same in the next six months.
Texas real estate professionals appear to be the most optimistic about the direction of home prices in their state, while those in Minnesota appear to be the least optimistic.
Agent Commentary From Question 6 — In the next six months, will the values of homes in your market increase, decrease or stay the same?
“Prices will drop another 10-20% after the Tax Credit for home purchasers expires on June 30th. HUD decreasing the seller concession for purchasers from 6% to 3% (after April 30th, 2010) will also hurt prices.” – Sterling Palmer, Future Planning Realty, New York City, NY
“Once all the incentives are eliminated our buyers will not have the desire to purchase unless they really must! Economy, home values decreasing, short sales are driving our industry done.” – Marilyn Hines, Green Comey & Shepherd Realtors, Cincinnati, OH”
“Prices will rise now through April 30. After that I expect another drop.” – Dale Falkowski, Atlanta, GA
“We are in a battle. There are many buyers out there and the quantity will probably build until April 30, 2010. My hope and prayer is that our real estate economy will hold up on its own after the rebates.” – Ron Maruca, Charles Rutenberg Realty LLC, Fort Lauderdale, FL
“I believe 2010 will prove to be the year we consume the majority of inventory and create a normalized market.” – Annalisa Jordan, Weichert Realtors Palmetto Coast, Charleston, SC
“The Silicon Valley market is pretty strong at the moment, mostly fueled by low inventory, low rates, and tax incentives. It will be interesting to see if it has legs as inventory builds over the year.” Eric Boyenga, Intero Real Estate, Cupertino, CA
“Prices in Pensacola remain in a very slow decline, and appear to be stabilizing. Some areas are holding their values. I expect that prices will drop again as the Tax Credit expires.” – Mike Dolezal, ERA Old South Properties, Pensacola, FL
“Very concerned about the shadow market people want to sell but have decided to rent the home or wait the market out hoping for fast rebound. Rebound may take 5-10 years. If you bought prior to 2005, you should be able to sell for a profit.” – Joyce Hartless, Prudential Realty Services, Steamboat Springs, CO
“The decrease in home prices will probably not be over until at least 2011.” – Tom Bailey, Heartland Realty, Newport News, VA
“”Over the past two months sales have increased and the number of listings has decreased. Many of the offers have been within 10% of the list price with many actually being above the list price.” – Dennis Herman Realty Executives Elite, Menomonee Falls, WI
Agent Commentary From Question 7 — What percent of homes for sale in your area are foreclosures?
“75% of homes on the market today are short-sales, pre-foreclosures or foreclosures and have been reduced in price dramatically. Buyers should be willing to offer the asking price more often than not.” – Carolyn Williams, Solid Source Realty Inc., Stone Mountain, GA
“I can’t wait until all our short sales and foreclosures are sold so we can go on with a normal real estate market.” – Lilo Clacher, Southern Premier Realty, Cape Coral, FL
“It will be hard to realize gains in property values until the foreclosure market is stabilized and becomes a non-factor.” – Chip Issette, Century 21 White House Realty, Stanwood, MI
“Bank REO and foreclosed properties are the most desired and the most difficult to close. The banks have no process, they move at a snails pace and the additional paperwork is redundant.” – Donald Croucher Jr., Robert McNellis Co., Carrollton, TX
“The real estate market in Columbia, SC, continues to hold steady in comparison with the overall national market.” – Nicole Donaghy, ERA Wilder Realty, Columbia, SC
“Once this credit runs out, the market will continue to decline.” – Mark Malave, American International Realty, Chicago, IL
“The tax credit seems to be carrying the first time buyers over the fence. We hope for an extension through the end of the year.” Dawna Stone, Realty World Homes of Distinction, Lakeland, FL
“Stop the $8,000 tax payer paid credit. Allow FHA to temporarily go back to the non-profit based programs where the seller could assist with buyer costs, rather than all tax payers. Promote the same with conventional through Fannie and Freddie.” – Mark Chappell, Lancaster, CA
“With the new appraisal guidelines including active listings, it is difficult to get highly qualified buyers a home. In order to stimulate the economy, the real estate sales must increase. Our government needs to step in and make better guidelines.” – Gayla Strickland, Henderson, NC
“Where’s the ALL THE STIMULUS MONEY gone??” – Greg Sullivan, Sullivan Realty, Quincy, MA
“The tax credit has helped in the last few months, but with average homeowners competing against short sales & foreclosures, market time is long and sellers are coming down on their home prices just to get the home sold.” – Mary Opfer, RE/MAX Unlimited NW, Crystal Lake, IL
“The tax credit is too low. It should be about $24K.” – Craig Robinson, Camarillo, CA
“The $8,000 and the $6,500 incentives will kill the market once they stop. They are accomplishing nothing good in the LONG run, only pulling sales forward!” – Ken Kodger, Avon Lake, OH
“The tax credit has had minimal effect on sales. Unemployment, consumer confidence are off the charts. Lenders are ridiculous.” – Rick Sandberg, Ryan Hill Realty, Naperville, IL
“I hope that the tax credit gets extended or replaced with something even more enticing. First time buyers are the only thing driving my business right now.” – Mark Vandervest, RE/MAX Equity Group, Inc., Beaverton, OR
“The first time buyer and pre-owned buyer rebates should be extended. Seems only Obama and Congress are worried about a terrible health care bill and are doing nothing about new jobs and the small business people who hire 85% of jobs.” – Barbara & John Wyatt, RE/MAX Gold III, Saint Charles, MO
“Thank goodness for all of those first time buyers! They have saved our market!” – Brad Fry, RE/MAX Achievers, Columbus, OH
Overall, 58% of surveyed real estate agents and brokers disapprove of President Obama’s performance so far this year.
Agent Commentary From Question 10 — How do you as a Realtor think Barack Obama is performing in his role as President?
“The unbridled anti-capitalism and over-spending coming from the White House has terrified all the markets, including and perhaps most importantly, real estate.” – Lee King, Scottsdale, AZ
“The President is killing the economy. The spending should be stopped. We should try to help the corporations so it stops the unemployment instead of taxing them more because all that does is lay off more employees in order to reserve corporation profits.” – Terry Pollard, Ruskin, FL
“Obama is very uneducated when it comes to finance and is not a strong President. He is hurting our country in a big way.” – Cheryl Waitt, Homes of New Hampshire Realty, Londonderry, NH
“Our President continues to believe that spending more money is going to resolve the issues of our country. At some point, hopefully, someone in Washington will teach him that tax cuts increase jobs. Increasing jobs will increase the housing market.” – Mitch Ribak, Tropical Realty of Suntree, Melbourne, FL
“Personal responsibility needs to be the focus and issue for this government and the consumers. Capitalism should be allowed to prosper. Quit penalizing those who earn good incomes.” – Janet Judd, RE/MAX Properties West, Chesterfield, MO
“Until this government quits playing games with everything and gets the jobs back into this economy, it is not going to change much as we see it currently.” – George Kraus, Mishicot, WI
“The first time home buyers incentive is a great success. If it’s extended, there would be no sense of urgency. Barack Obama is a brilliant President. He should just follow his gut and stop worrying about being bipartisan.” – Janice Vollmer, RE/MAX Signature, Southampton, PA
“Mr. Obama is making the real estate industry worse by trying to prop up the market with our taxpayer money.” – Joe Brown, Frisco, TX
“He needs to figure out a better way to get this country out of debt.” – Shane Hauser, Great Western Real Estate, Murrieta, CA
“The President and the Media are lying to Americans! The HAMP program is not working. The President is an idiot as he is not listening to the people. We do not want health care reform. We want the banks to work with homeowners and the economy fixed!” – LisaMarie Theis, Fairfield, CA
“We need to start holding people to contractual obligations. Stop forgiving debt. We have lowered expectations to a never before low. Wake up Obama and Congress!” – Bill Pfeif, Guarantee Real Estate, Fresno, CA
“He is the worst President next to Jimmy Carter. He definitely needs to go.” – Alisha Wade, Realty ONE Group, Inc., Scottsdale, AZ
HomeGain real estate home values survey results are based on responses of over 1,400 real estate agents and brokers across the United States.
See 4th quarter 2009 state survey results.
See 1st quarter 2009 National home prices results
*Regions are divided as follows:
- Northeast: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland and West Virginia
- Southeast: Virginia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee
- Mid-West: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri
- West: Alaska, Hawaii, California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Idaho and Montana
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OK – So Obama gave a first time homebuyer an incentive, but that money has to be paid from somewhere. You just don’t give money away and not pay it back – in the longrun “we” are paying all that money back through out taxes etc.
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