No real change in my posture. I still believe that national mortgage rates have room to go lower in the next 30-90 days but I’m advising clients who are closing in less than 17 days to lock. All others can float.

Mortgage-backed securities traders have “baked in” a .25% rate cut from the Fed when they meet tomorrow. If Bernanke doesn’t cut, mortgage rates will jump quickly. This week is filled with economic data.

If the data are reported weaker than the estimates, we could see lower mortgage rates in the next week. The risk of that not happening, in this volatile market, is real so I’m sticking to the recommendation of locking your loans if you are closing before May 15.

Countrywide Financial reported a big loss from foreclosures while MasterCard reported huge profits. While MasterCard doesn’t actually issue the cards (they just make money from transactions), it shows that people are walking away from their mortgages and using credit cards more frequently.

Traders think that Bernanke is fixing the financial crisis in this country but those two events should give you reason to deliberate. We’re still bouncing around on choppy seas and should be through the end of the year. I just don’t see mortgage rates above the 6.5% level at all this year.