The June 2009 Mortgage Rates Massacre
Mortgage rates, prior to June, were stabilizing after a volatile first quarter. Potential home buyers and existing homeowners were settling in to the fact that a 4.5% conventional mortgage rate could be had; some days you had to pay a couple of points, some days only one. FHA and VA loans were about an eighth of a percentage point higher.

Brighter days in the real estate market seemed inevitable.
Volatility hit the mortgage rates market like an unexpected tsunami. Here’s how it unfolded:
- Upwards pressure quietly started about a week before Memorial Day. We figured the mortgage bond traders were taking some profits. No big deal; we recovered and rates came back down to the 4’s.
- The triangulated attack came from a California politician, a California bond fund manager, and the Chinese. I thought the bond market was overreacting. Rates jumped up as high as 5.375% but came back down to 5%. I felt comfortable that the Fed would intervene, keeping mortgage rates below 5%.
- I was optimistic about this prospect of lower mortgage rates and cautioned that only one thing could rain on that parade.
- Last Monday, I awoke with a pit in my stomach; that “one thing” happened. I cautiously locked every loan in my pipeline; all at 5%. While I believed in my heart that rates would drop again, the risk seemed too great to play around. I privately thought the mortgage bond traders were just playing chicken with the Fed.
- Last Thursday, I reversed a six month bias towards lower mortgage rates. Since December, 2008, I believed that the Fed would artificially keep rates below 5% in order to spur economic activity. I privately thought this “money printing” would ruin the economy with hyper-inflation but I expected that sometime in the Fall of 2009. Still, I never fight the Fed.
- Friday, I wondered if the better unemployment numbers, which drove retail mortgage rates to 5.5%, might be the final blow in this massacre. Nuthin’ doin’. We haven’t peaked just yet.
What does this mean to you, the professional real estate agent?
Due to the current economy, homeowners will want to be aware of these important tips, and know whether they qualify for specific deductions, when it is time to submit their tax return.
Here are four myths, truths and action items, about VA home loans, that could help you serve your home buying customers better:
One of my resolutions this year is to be more active on the HomeGain Blog. While I love to talk about marketing ideas, my self-appointed “title” here, if you will, is resident mortgage guru. I hope to expand my offering to you with a weekly column, more focused on mortgage financing issues that you, the professional real estate agents, face.

