With winter fast approaching, Park City and Deer Valley are about to be swamped with tourists from around the world looking for the best snow on earth. With this comes an increase in market activity from potential second home buyers, and hopefully a little stability in the marketplace. We have a lot to look forward to in Q4, but let’s take a look at how Q3 treated us during these summer and fall months.

According to the Park City Board, we have under performed in this quarter compared to Q2 but have made significant progress from last years dreadfully slow year. Thankfully, the Utah economy as a whole has held fairly strong in the midst of economic turmoil elsewhere, and Park City has been one of the most active markets in the state. Sales have been up 18% from last year and a huge 86% increase from two years ago.

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Fifty percent of New Jersey Real Estate Professionals expect home values to drop in the coming six months

Last month, HomeGain, the first company to provide free instant home valuations online, released the results of our first quarter 2011 nationwide home values survey of over 750 HomeGain current and former members and 1600 home owners. The survey asked their opinions on home prices and what they thought of President Obama’s performance as President. On this real estate blog we published the 1st quarter 2011 national results as well as the complete 1st quarter 2011 regional results, including commentary from real estate agents and brokers.

Earlier this month we released the  California 1st quarter 2011 home values survey data and the Florida 1st quarter 2011 home values survey data, the 1st quarter 2011 Texas home prices survey data and the 1st quarter 2011 New York home prices survey data. In the coming days we will be releasing home values survey data from Illinois,  Arizona, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and other states.

Today we are publishing the New Jersey home prices survey data.

Set forth below is the first quarter 2011 real estate professional and home owner New Jersey home prices survey data along with the fourth  quarter 2010 real estate professional survey data and the first quarter 2011 national home prices survey data: (click on each question to see complete results):

1. Have home prices increased, decreased or stayed the same in the last year?
2. On average, what do homeowners believe that their home is worth?
3. How do buyers feel that homes for sale are priced?
4. What is the average difference in price between what sellers believe their home to be worth and the amount at which the home gets listed?
5. What is the average difference in price between what a home is listed at and what a home sells for?
6. In the next six months, will the values of homes in your market increase, decrease or stay the same?
7. What percentage of homes for sale are foreclosures in your area?
8. What is the average home price in your area?
9. What percentage of your clients are first-time buyers?
10. How do you think Barack Obama is performing in his role as President?

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HomeGain’s  Home Buyers and Sellers Listing Preferences survey finds home buyers want to see marketing amenities like photos and floor plans in home listings; A majority of home sellers select real estate agents based on fees, web presence and office location rather than on their specific marketing plans

We’re pleased to announce the results of its survey on home buyer listing preferences and home seller listing agent criteria.

HomeGain surveyed over 1,000 home buyers who were asked to rate, on a scale of one to five, the importance of certain home listing amenities and information including, but not limited to, the number of photographs available, neighborhood information, virtual tours and interactive floor plans presented in connection with home listings.

The results show that the most important listings feature (scoring 4.3) buyers want to see is a large number of photographs. The next most important listings feature (scoring 4.1) for buyers are maps that display the location of the listed property.

Top 10 Most Important Property Listing Features for Home Buyers (Cumulative Averages, 1 = Least important, 5 = Most important):

1. Wide selection of photographs (4.3)
2. Location of the property on a map (4.1)
3. Room sizes (4.0)
4. Floor plans (3.9)
5. Town name (3.8)
6. House number (3.57)
7. Street name (3.57)
8. Room description (3.51)
9. 360 virtual tours (3.4)
10. Information on local services, eg. shops and schools (3.2)

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As most of us know by know we are in for another bad year, even the optimists are pessimistic. It pretty clear that the latest index report shows a double dip. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index fell in December from November in all 20 cities, except Washington, D.C . Nationally, home prices fell 4.1% during the last three months of 2010, compared top last year, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, down 1.9% compared with the past three months.

The big question is whether we are bouncing along a bottom or whether we have more to go. The following are some thoughts from around the web that highlight some of the current sentiments, both optimistic and pessimistic. I’ve also included one silver lining I have to share.

Robert Shiller
New York Times
Yale Economist and half of the Case Shiller Team

He is the author of “Irrational Exuberance and helped develop the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index. Mr. Shiller said in a conference call that he saw a substantial risk of the market falling another 15, 20 or even 25 percent.

National Association Of Homebuilders

This is the worst year for new-home sales in 50 years. February remained unchanged for the fourth straight month at 16. Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment. The index hasn’t seen 50 or better since April 2006.

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An over promoted business idea of recent times is that “free” is the path to riches.  This concept approaches a thought bubble. While only a handful of companies (e.g. Google and Facebook)  have achieved  widespread adpotion and success by offering free services, the success of these companies has spawned a disproportinate amount of attention on a new business model – the  “freemium” model. Top technology blogs like  Venture Beat, Giga om, Silcon Valley Watcher and Tech Crunch have covered the topic, Freemium conferences have been held and a pop culture book  “Free: The Future of a Radical Price” was a best seller (and top free download).

This attention may be misguided.

There are critical distinctions among the oft touted freemium, ”freeluxe”  and “paidium” (both newly coined terms by me!) models that should be considered. Perhaps, too many companies choose to pursue the freemium  model instead of  the paidium model due to the hype over” free”. Perhaps, too many companies chose the freemium route because they don’t see the one significant difference between the freemium and freeluxe models. Perhaps, too many companies choose the freemium model because of the marketing and sales challenges of the paidium model.

As a result of these miscalculations, many good new products are perhaps being brought to the market in the wrong way and there may be a  misallocation of (venture) capital as is often the case when bubbles, thought or otherwise, are prevalanet.

Here is a review of the three models.

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A Glass Half Full

Vacancy rates for all apartment buildings with 5 units or more declined to 12.1% from 12.5% in the previous quarter, according a National Multi-Housing Council (NMHC). The national vacancy rate dropped to 7.2% from the prior quarters 8.2%, the lowest level for first quarter vacancy rates since late 2008. Local markets point to the South and West being the weakest rental markets with while the Northeast had the lowest vacancy rate, coming in at 5%.

Rent Rates

Although effective rent fell by 2.3% over last year, it was more than half the 5.6% decline of 2009. Rent declines have not only slowed but have finally reversed. The chart above points to the early beginnings of a reversal in trend. But investment properties will depend on a stronger rebound. We’ll need to see significant job growth to support a continuing rent rate recovery.

Longer Term Prospects look strong: Continue reading this post