We’ve all heard it; “real estate is local”. I’m not so sure.

I believe that all of the different “local” real estate markets are in fact intertwined with one another. While there is not much value in a national average or median real estate price, there is value in national sales volume, national inventory levels and other national housing statistics.

Think of them as a barometer - a measure by which you can assess your local market. Perhaps your market is selling more homes on average at a higher price point than the national average. Perhaps it’s less. Either way, national market statistics matter. You can use this information as part of a general wellness test of your local market. Not to mention that what actually is happening in other local real estate markets can directly affect what happens in your local market.

We in fact just ran into a scenario where a client of ours could only buy a home at a certain price here because the home he owns in Michigan cannot sell for a reasonable price there. They wanted to spend about $600,000, but, bought for $250,000 until the home in Michigan can sell. This is an example of exactly how these markets are intertwined and why in fact real estate is not all local.

To truly understand your local market, you must stay abreast of and understand more than just your neighborhood, town and city market statistics lest someone else who does understand will be the “local expert” instead of you. Continue reading this post

According to reports in the Wall Street Journal and the Miami Herald first time home buyers are accounting for a large portion of the recent boost in existing home sales. The reports cite lower home prices and the provision in the Obama stimulus plan that gives first time home buyers an $8,000 credit.

Indeed, on a conference call following HomeGain’s release of its survey of Realtors on Home Values, HomeGain member Jeffrey Bastress of Starpoint Realty in Massachusettes cited that he had recently received numerous offers from first time home buyers citing the $8,000 credit as a reason for their interest in purchasing a home.

Andrew Duncan of Keller Williams of Tampa also cited the new tax incentives, lower home prices and great interest rates as driving new home buyers to make their first purchases.

Could it be however, the reason that first time home buyers are making up a good portion of existing home sales is that they haven’t been burned yet?

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I’ve been looking through some recent reports to try and sleuth out the general economic level of malaise and I’m am happy to say that we are not yet feeling the pain in a serious way. The San Francisco Apartment Association magazine prints a nicely detailed economic overview by Mat Sheridan. The first chart shows us that the San Francisco employment rate is less that the state unemployment rate by a little less than half. At 4 to 5%, our jobless rate is painful, but not devastating. Our vacancy rates are still less than 5% and we are among the top rental markets in the country.

I have this theory…..San Francisco is host to huge commuter busses that stop in most areas of the city. They pick up workers from Google, Apple, EBAY, Genentech and other south bay companies. The commuters are picked up in central locations throughout the city and driven to work and back. This has brought huge numbers of well paid employees whose only alternative to living and in San Francisco and working in the south bay was to endure a hour plus commute or take Caltrans.

The bus alternative is a no cost convenient way to live in San Francisco and work in Silicon Valley. The net of this, (my theory) is that San Francisco and Silicon Valley are becoming economically interdependent and this has fueled our rental boom. The health of the tech industry is even more closely aligned to the economic health of San Francisco than ever before. The human typography of this city has been undeniably altered.

San Jose as a Leading Indicator

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HomeGain®, the first website to provide free instant home values, today announced the state results of a nationwide survey of current and former HomeGain Realtor® members’ opinions on the Obama stimulus plan.

Last week HomeGain released the results of a nationwide survey of nearly 700 current and former HomeGain members. The survey asked their opinions on home values and the impact of the Obama stimulus package. On this blog we published the national and regional results.

We also released survey data from Texas, California ,Illinois , Florida , New York and Georgia.

The HomeGain member survey received national coverage and the results were noted in USA Today, Dallas Morning News,Boston Globe, Crane’s Investment News, Sellsius, Dallas Magazine, Orange County Register, RIS Media, Philadelphia Daily News, St. Petersburg Times, the Boston Real Estate Blog, Real Trends, Realtor Magazine, Inman News, Transparent Real Estate, Agent Genius and other blogs.

Today we released the state survey results on Realtors’ opinions on the Obama stimulus plan.

Nationally 45% of our surveyed Realtors thought Obama’s stimulus plan would have no impact on home values. 38% thought it would stabilize home prices, 13% thought it would decrease home prices and just four percent thought it would increase home values.

The HomeGain survey was conducted the week of February 23. A Rassmussen telephone poll conducted the same week showed that 34% of U.S. voters thought the plan would help the economy while 32% thought it would hurt. Twenty eight percent of US voters participating in the Rasmuessen poll thought the plan would have little impact on the economy.

Set forth below are the HomeGain survey results by state of the Realtors’ opinion of the Obama stimulus plan:

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More than 2/3 of Realtors® Surveyed in California, Massachusettes, Michigan and New York See Further Decline in Home Prices in Next Six Months

More than 2/3 of Realtors® Surveyed in Pennsylvania Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Ohio, Colorado and Washington See Flat or Rising Home Prices in Next Six Months

Last week HomeGain released nationwide, regional and state survey data on Realtor’s opinions on home values and the Obama stimulus plan.

While the national survey data revealed generally a poor housing market, the results were not uniform.

A closer look at the state survey data shows that while the majority of Realtors in many states are expecting further home price declines in the coming six months, large percentages of Realtors in other states are expecting higher home prices.

There were a few where more than 50% of the Realtors surveyed believed that home prices would stay the same.

Of note was Pennsylvania where more than 3 of 4 Realtors surveyed expect no change in home prices in the coming six months.

Below are the results of our survey that indicate by state the percentage of Realtors that think home prices will rise, fall or stay the same:

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Earlier this week HomeGain released the results of a nationwide survey of nearly 700 current and former HomeGain members. The survey asked their opinions on home prices and the impact of the Obama stimulus package. On this real estate blog we published the national and regional results.

Continue reading this post